After beauty's social return on ad spend (ROAS) dipped to $1.90 in Q4 2024, the category saw a marked jump up to $3.50 in Q1 2025, according to a March report from Cart.com.

AI-fueled gains kept Google, Meta, and Amazon atop Q2’s ad market, but slowing engagement, murky ROI, and macro risks leave the triopoly’s future growth story more complex than the headlines suggest.

This report compares our 2025 US ad spending and time spent with media forecasts. It identifies incongruities between how marketers are spending ad dollars and where consumers are spending their time.

The news: OpenAI’s GPT-5 could be the start of ChatGPT becoming a transaction-driven super app that monetizes user intent, not attention. GPT-5’s router—which analyzes queries and decides how hard to “think” based on complexity—lets OpenAI invest more resources during high-intent moments like “compare hiking boots under $200” or “best smart TVs for co-op gaming.” Prioritizing queries with high commercial value could help OpenAI monetize users not through ads but via affiliate or take-rate revenues, per SemiAnalysis. Partnerships with Shopify and others suggest that monetization stack is already on the way. Our take: A full-service ChatGPT that’s intuitive enough to guide full shopping journeys inside a chatbot while keeping backend costs minimal could rewrite the AI platform’s business model. Brands should be working to optimize for AI-native commerce and integrate with agentic tools.

The news: Google announced an expanded use of AI to combat invalid ad traffic in a bid to help advertisers preserve budgets and maintain trust, per a recent blog post. Though Google has previously used AI to prevent invalid traffic (IVT), the company has updated its “industry-leading defenses powered by large language models,” with the goal of better analyzing ad placements, suspicious user interactions, and app and web content. Our take: By taking concrete steps to reduce IVT and address transparency concerns, Google may begin to rebuild trust with advertisers.

The news: Advertisers are broadening how they use AI tools for marketing campaigns beyond data analysis, per a report from DoubleVerify. Nearly half (46%) of advertisers plan to use AI for creating media strategies in 2025, up slightly from 2024. An equal percentage of marketers are using AI for bidding optimization and mid-flight plan optimization. Our take: Widespread AI adoption in marketing is inevitable as AI tools proliferate across industries. Success hinges on how, not if, marketers implement the technology. Consumers are more likely to trust brands that are transparent about how they use AI in their ad materials.

Spotify’s Ad Exchange is reshaping podcast monetization by moving beyond one-to-one sponsorships toward scalable, automated buying. With adoption up 60% since spring and expanded DSP integrations via Google DV360, Magnite, and The Trade Desk, the platform is positioning itself to capture a larger share of the $5.5B global podcast ad market. While CPM and performance gaps remain compared with host-read ads, programmatic’s potential for reach and efficiency could push rivals to upgrade their own offerings.

Roughly two-thirds (64%) of Gen Z consumers have cut spending in the past year due to higher living costs, according to an April Ipsos survey for Bank of America.Uncertainty is beginning to shape Gen Z’s purchasing decisions. Brands will need to work harder to earn their dollars—possibly by appealing to the generation’s tendency to shop for emotional relief.

Amazon is expanding same-day delivery for fresh groceries to over 1,000 US cities, with plans to reach 2,300 by late 2025. The rollout integrates perishables into its core app for single-cart checkout alongside other goods, offering Prime members free delivery on orders over $25. Early pilots saw strong adoption, especially from first-time grocery buyers who shopped more frequently after trying fresh food. The move pressures rivals like Walmart, Instacart, and Kroger in a slowing but sizable $271 billion online grocery market. If Amazon can convert trial users into loyal customers, it could reshape expectations for grocery delivery speed and convenience.

The news: As budgets tighten, consumers are altering their streaming habits, per Hub Research’s annual Monetizing Video report. While the average user is unwilling to pay much more than they’re already paying for streaming subscriptions, 42% say they are much more likely to maintain bundled subscriptions compared with individual streaming subscriptions. Our take: Advertisers must pay attention to platforms that offer bundle packages as key areas for investment due to their lower churn. Bundles consolidate audience attention and offer more predictable engagement.

Brinker International and Cava Group posted diverging quarterly results, showing the split fortunes in the restaurant industry as consumers eat at home more often and become pickier about where they spend. In the current environment of economic pressure and home-shifted dining, restaurants can stand out from the crowd by making their value clear to cost-conscious consumers. Here’s how underperforming dining chains can improve: Offer value, not just lower prices. Deals like Chili’s “3 for Me” are easy to understand and come across as a genuine bargain. Try limited-time promotions for new items, or lean on nostalgia by resurrecting discontinued items. Invest in operational excellence. Well-trained staff and hospitality can encourage deal seekers to return.

In this podcast episode, we discuss the difference between a real miss vs. sparking conversation, if there is such a thing as bad press, and what brands should do once a campaign doesn’t land. Listen to the discussion with Vice President of Content and guest host, Suzy Davidkhanian, Principal Analyst, Sky Canaves, and Analyst, Arielle Feger.

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Retailers are stretching traditional holiday shopping periods into longer seasons and creating new shopping moments throughout the year, as consumers become more strategic about their spending and retailers seek to drive consistent traffic.

The news: Fintech giant Chime beat Wall Street estimates in its first quarterly revenue reporting as a public company, driven by strong demand for its digital banking services, per Reuters. Our first take: Chime's impressive debut as a public company is a powerful statement about the shifting dynamics of consumer banking. For years, traditional banks have dismissed challenger banks as a fringe trend. But Chime's financial performance proves there's a huge, profitable market for digital-first financial services. In addition, Chime’s focus on short-term liquidity tools and early pay access has positioned it as a valuable financial partner, especially as consumers are faced with pressing economic concerns.

The news: Despite consumers’ rising use of AI agents for search, shopping, and discovery, brands are falling behind on generative engine optimization (GEO) strategies. 47% of brands have no deliberate GEO strategy or have no idea if they appear at all in AI agent responses, per a new report from Cordial. Another 47% have only just begun optimizing content for AI discovery. Our take: To boost visibility, brands should optimize for conversational context and create structured, machine-readable content that AI can index, like clear website FAQs, TL;DR summaries, and detailed product specs. Expanding presence across social platforms that feed AI training models, such as Reddit, Quora, and YouTube, can also improve chances of surfacing in AI-generated responses.

Some high-engagement platforms are still undermonetized—creating opportunities for advertisers to connect with audiences in less-saturated environments.

The news: 88% of mobile app ad spend is concentrated on Google and Meta, per Moloco’s Performance Through Independence report, despite high user engagement with independent apps. Advertisers who diversified their ad mix beyond the two Big Tech giants saw return on ad spend (ROAS) improve by up to 214%. Our take: Independent mobile apps offer untapped ROI. Reducing reliance on Google and Meta by diversifying mobile app spend could boost reach, hedge against platform risks, and better align with user behavior, especially as privacy challenges threaten to reshape targeting and measurement.

The news: Google is turning search results into a customizable, algorithmic feed. The search giant is rolling out Preferred Sources, which allows users to select their favorite blogs or news outlets to appear the most in the “top stories” section. The feature aims to help users see more content from their favorite sites, per Google. Our take: If search results become a more limited discovery engine, news sites and blogs may need to rely more heavily on traffic through alternative sources. Joining blogging sites like Medium and Substack could help maintain visibility and surface new readers who will add them as preferred news sources, considering the platforms’ focus on content discovery.

The news: Live-streamer Sling TV debuted day, weekend, and weeklong streaming passes as monthly subscription costs escalate. Consumers can buy a Day Pass for $4.99, a Friday-Sunday pass for $9.99, or a Week Pass for $14.99. Passes don’t auto-renew. All three passes offer access to the same 34 channels on Sling’s Orange package, including ESPN, TNT, A&E, Comedy Central, and more. Our take: If its short-term passes are successful, we can expect more streamers to follow suit and potentially offer popular IP for rent—think “Squid Game” on Netflix or “The Gilded Age” on HBO Max. That would allow advertisers to target specific, price-conscious audiences.

In today’s episode, ​we talk about the promise and challenges financial media networks face in the burgeoning commerce media network landscape.​ Join the discussion with host and Head of Business Development Rob Rubin, ​Principal Analyst Sarah Marzano, and Senior Analyst Max Willens.

The news: President Trump recently signed an executive order to allow Americans to invest 401(k) retirement savings in private equity, cryptocurrency, real estate, and other alternative assets, per NBC. The administration believes this will give retirement savers more opportunities for potentially higher returns. Our take: This may excite younger consumers in particular, as they generally are more interested in alternative investments. But critics and financial experts warn that these new options come with higher risks and costs than traditional 401(k)s. The traditional banking model centers on stability, trust, and relatively conservative financial products. In addition to new opportunities, introducing high-risk, alternative assets into retirement accounts creates significant challenges for the banking sector.