This report compares our 2025 US ad spending and time spent with media forecasts. It identifies incongruities between how marketers are spending ad dollars and where consumers are spending their time.

US social ad spend will grow YoY in 2025, even as platforms grapple with tariff-related budget cuts from industries that spend heavily on social channels, like CPG and retail.

Total time spent with media per day in the US is no longer growing meaningfully, but there will still be significant churn between devices, activities, and platforms as consumers choose how to spend their time.

The number of social network users in the US will tick up 1.7% YoY this year, while adult users will see almost 2% growth. But time spent on social networks among adult users will peak this year, meaning the battle for engagement is on.

US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.

The news: Though it already offers software-as-a-service in the US, UK digital bank Starling has its sights set on a US expansion, per PYMNTS. Our take: Starling’s multi-pronged growth strategy is in line with its biggest digital competitors. We’ve recently covered multiple neobanks and fintechs pursuing or considering IPOs in the US, along with fintechs acquiring banks for licenses. But this isn't just about neobanks competing with other neobanks; it represents a direct strategic pivot by digital-native players to leverage their technology to rapidly modernize and capture customers from the traditional banking market. Such moves will inevitably intensify competitive pressure on US mid-tier and community banks, forcing them to seek fintech partnerships to avoid becoming acquisition targets themselves.

TikTok will see healthy user growth this year in the US, even as its future remains unclear. User time spent on the app is falling YoY, but it still leads other social networks. However, it’s facing more competition from Instagram and YouTube.

Search ad spending will not be immune to the economic upheaval caused by the US tariff regime. But it will be less susceptible than other spending areas.

Turbulence in trade relations is changing how China’s ecommerce platforms do business in the US, with spillover effects on US retail and advertising.

Companies are beginning to feel the sting of anti-US boycotts. Anti-US sentiment is especially visible in Canada, where consumers are directing more spending to local retailers and brands—and making fewer visits south of the border. Still, while Canadians are using boycotts to push back against US trade policy, there are few signs elsewhere that anti-American sentiment is driving shoppers away from US brands.

Snacks maker Mars said it plans to invest an additional $2 billion in US manufacturing through next year to build new facilities and upgrade existing ones in wake of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Tariffs are leading some businesses to boost their US footprint, and we may see more investment announcements. But a key consideration is whether these expansion announcements will represent substantive, job-creating initiatives, or if they are largely symbolic moves designed to support the US government’s current messaging around American manufacturing.

The strategy: In 2023, U.S. Bank launched a nontraditional campaign to promote Asistente Inteligente, its bilingual Spanish voice assistant that debuted the prior year. The bank co-produced “Translators,” a documentary highlighting the challenges faced by millions of children who act as translators for their immigrant families, particularly in financial matters, per Storyboard 18. Our take: This campaign was a masterclass in purpose-driven marketing that doubles as a long-term business strategy. Many financial institutions (FIs) often overlook or superficially address underbanked and immigrant populations. But the GDP of US Latinos is the second-fastest-growing in the world, next to that of consumers in China, per think tank Latino Donor Collaborative. And 25% of US consumers ages 18 and under are part of the Latino community—offering smaller FIs an opportunity to combat their “age problem.”

The news: British fintech Revolut is reportedly considering acquiring a US bank to rapidly obtain a US banking license, enabling faster expansion, per The Financial Times. It will likely target a low-cost, nationally chartered bank. Our take: Revolut’s potential acquisition of a US bank reflects a growing trend of successful fintechs becoming banks themselves through strategic acquisition rather than merely being disruptors. PYMNTS reported that multiple fintechs—including Wise, Circle, and Ripple—also recently applied for banking licenses with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. This means banks must lean into what differentiates them from the growing competition beyond charters and insured deposits, like long-standing reputations, excellent customer service, and customer-centric products and services.

With origins in performance advertising and a focus on efficiency, retail media is likely to remain resilient, even amid an economic upheaval exacerbated by US tariffs. However, impacts won’t be evenly felt, leaving some players better positioned to withstand headwinds.

YouTube is the No. 1 US media platform when it comes to time spent by US adult users, reaching 11.4 billion minutes per day in 2025.

The news: The FDA laid out a new FDA PreCheck initiative, aimed at helping pharma companies build US manufacturing plants more quickly. The takeaway: FDA PreCheck may ease manufacturing regulations and trim review time, but navigating real estate, construction, and skilled labor issues still means pharma companies are facing years-long timelines to reshore drug manufacturing. Trump has promised a year or two grace period on his proposed 250% tariffs, but that may not be long enough to get plants up and running. Pharma should look to cut deals—like Apple’s recent tariff exemption granted by Trump after it promised to invest $100 billion in US manufacturing—to guarantee exemptions as long as projects are underway.

The news: AstraZeneca plans to invest $50 billion in US drug manufacturing and R&D by 2030. The big takeaway: Pouring billions into US builds isn’t an option for most generic drugmakers that operate on thin margins. This could result in shortages since companies that make generics may have to choose between exiting the market once tariffs take effect and raising prices when possible. Other players in this space might find it most beneficial to wait it out and see if Trump changes course yet again on tariff policy.